10 series · computed with 1 − (1 − p)^N
The Odds Table
The whole database, one grid: each series' published ratio class and the probability of pulling at least one secret across 6, 12, and 24 boxes — plus the expected box count for a full regular set. Where a maker publishes odds per wave instead of a stable fraction, we say "varies" rather than invent a number.
Published box ratios — printed per series and wave on official packaging. Always verify on the current packaging before you buy.
| Series | Figures | Secret ratio | P(secret) 6 boxes | P(secret) 12 boxes | P(secret) 24 boxes | Full set ≈ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Monsters (Labubu) Big Into EnergyPop Mart | 6+1 | 1/72 class | 8.0% | 15% | 29% | 15 boxes |
| The Monsters (Labubu) Exciting MacaronPop Mart | 6+1 | 1/72 class | 8.0% | 15% | 29% | 15 boxes |
| Sonny Angel HippersDreams Inc. | 12+1 | published per wave — secret + chase tiers | varies | varies | varies | 37 boxes |
| Skullpanda Image of RealityPop Mart | 12+1 | 1/144 class | 4.1% | 8.0% | 15% | 37 boxes |
| Crybaby Tears FactoryPop Mart | 12+1 | 1/144 class | 4.1% | 8.0% | 15% | 37 boxes |
| Molly Space Molly seriesPop Mart | 12+1 | 1/144 class | 4.1% | 8.0% | 15% | 37 boxes |
| Smiski Living SeriesDreams Inc. | 6+1 | secret published per box | varies | varies | varies | 15 boxes |
| Dimoo Dimoo World classicsPop Mart | 12+1 | 1/144 class | 4.1% | 8.0% | 15% | 37 boxes |
| Hirono MimePop Mart | 12+1 | 1/144 class | 4.1% | 8.0% | 15% | 37 boxes |
| Unicorno Unicorno core seriestokidoki | 8+1 | chase ratios published per case | varies | varies | varies | 22 boxes |
Reading this table honestly
P(secret) is 1 − (1 − p)N using the commonly published ratio class for each series. It assumes independent boxes — the right model for blind singles off a shelf. Sealed cases can behave differently (some formats place secrets per multi-case allocation), which is one more reason the printed packaging beats any table, including ours.
Full set ≈ is the coupon-collector expectation k·H(k) for the regular figures bought as blind singles at even odds. Most 12-box formats pack one of each regular per sealed case, so case-buyers can usually skip that grind entirely.
Rows marked varies belong to makers (Dreams Inc., tokidoki) that publish odds per wave, box, or case rather than as one stable fraction. Take the ratio off your packaging and run it through the calculator — same math, your numbers.